Here’s a concise update on the latest about ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation).
Core update
- In early 2025, NOAA/NOAA-affiliated sources indicated that La Niña conditions had ended and the tropical Pacific had returned to ENSO-neutral. Forecasters expected neutral conditions to prevail through mid-2025, with potential development of El Niño later in the year. cite NOAA CPC/NWS monitoring and advisory pages describing the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral and the outlook for the next months.[3][4]
Recent and next steps
- ENSO-neutral is typically a transitional phase between El Niño and La Niña and can influence rainfall and temperature patterns globally, with effects often more pronounced in winter than summer in the Northern Hemisphere. NOAA’s ENSO pages emphasize that ENSO conditions and their impacts are forecast to evolve through the seasons, with possible emergence of El Niño conditions later in 2025 or 2026 depending on ocean-atmosphere coupling.[3]
- Forecast discussions from multiple centers have indicated that if El Niño were to redevelop, it would likely first manifest as a weak to moderate event before potentially strengthening, though confidence diminishes as you move further out in time. CPC/NCEP/NWS discussions and regional climate centers provide the official outlooks and caveats about timing and strength.[4]
What this means for you (practical implications)
- ENSO-neutral usually means irregular rainfall patterns without the pronounced extremes often associated with strong El Niño or La Niña events. For planning in sectors like agriculture, water resources, or disaster preparedness, this implies relying on year-to-year variability and short- to mid-term forecasts rather than expecting a fixed El Niño or La Niña-driven regime in upcoming seasons.[3]
- If you’re coordinating weather-sensitive activities in Buffalo, NY, you’d typically monitor December–February forecasts more closely, since winter ENSO phases tend to have the strongest associations with North American winter weather, though regional impacts also depend on other atmospheric patterns.[3]
Sources you can check for ongoing updates
- NOAA Climate.gov ENSO overview and current status pages for the latest official assessments and outlooks.[3]
- CPC/NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussions for the most recent advisory and any shifts in probability for El Niño development.[4]
If you’d like, I can pull the latest official summary from NOAA and summarize the exact probabilities for El Niño development in 2025–2026, and tailor a short briefing for your region or sector.
Sources
Current Status April 10, 2025 Final La Niña Advisory After just a few months of La Niña conditions, the tropical Pacific is now ENSO-neutral, and forecasters expect neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer. Latest Official ENSO Update … ENSO April 10, 2025 After just a few months, La Niña conditions have ended and the tropical Pacific has returned to neutral conditions. Our blogger gives you the scoop on La Niña's end and the forecast for the rest of 2025. Read More ENSO...
www.climate.govLatest update on this winter's powerful El Niño says it could last several more months
www.cbsnews.comENSO is a significant climate phenomenon that involves changes in sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
vajiramandravi.comThere is a 60% chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70% in June-August and 80% between July and September, according to the Update, which is based on input from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and expert assessment. … It is worth noting, however, that the Northern Hemisphere 'spring predictability barrier' a period characterized by somewhat lower predictive skill, has not yet passed. Nevertheless, these...
wmo.intThe El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, released on 09 April 2026 by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)/NCEP/NWS, the “Final La Niña Advisory” was issued alongside an “El Niño Watch,” with ENSO-neutral conditions favored through April–June 2026 (80% chance) before El Niño is likely to emerge in May–July 2026 (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.
iri.columbia.edu8 June 2023 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Synopsis: El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24. In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest … as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). In...
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