Here are the latest widely reported updates on El Niño.
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Current status heading into 2026: Forecasters have continued to monitor the development of El Niño, with updates suggesting a high likelihood of fully established El Niño conditions through mid to late 2025 and continuing influences into 2026 in many regions. Note: exact status can vary by advisory and region, so official forecasts from organizations like NOAA and WMO are the most reliable for precise dates and strength. [cite ][cite ]
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Global impacts to watch: El Niño is typically associated with warmer global average temperatures and altered precipitation patterns, including drought in some regions and increased rainfall in others. Governments often prepare for potential droughts or floods depending on regional susceptibility. [cite ][cite ]
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Regional emphasis for you in Montréal, QC: While El Niño primarily drives atmospheric and oceanic patterns across the Pacific and global climate signals, its influence can indirectly affect weather variability in Eastern Canada, including winter and spring precipitation and temperature patterns. For localized forecasts, rely on Environment Canada updates and regional WeatherCAN advisories. [cite ][cite ]
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How to stay updated: Check the latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussions and quarterly/seasonal updates from NOAA Climate.gov and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authoritative timelines and expected impacts by region. [cite ][cite ]
Illustration: If you’d like, I can generate a simple chart showing recent ENSO forecasts and observed anomalies over the past 24 months. I can also summarize a short, region-specific outlook for Montréal. Would you like a chart or a concise regional outlook? [cite ][cite ]
Sources
The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared approximately every three months through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoring and predicting this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by WMO and IRI.More on El Niño / La Niña Monitoring and...
wmo.intOn the ENSO Blog's 10th anniversary, El Niño is in its last weeks and a transition to neutral conditions imminent. Our seasoned blogger discusses the outlook for later this year, and looks back at some of the global impacts of this El Niño.
www.climate.govClimate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comThe National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) increased the status of El Niño from watch to advisory, indicating that El Niño has officially arrived. The latest update, issued today by CPC and IRI, indicates a 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions persisting into the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. The update notes, however, that due to its weak expected strength and late timing, the widespread or significant impacts often associated with El Niño are
iri.columbia.eduOver the last month, the ongoing El Niño in the central Pacific has strengthened from weak to weak/moderate, and the chance that such conditions will persist has risen since last month’s forecast. There is now a 97% chance of El Niño for the May-July season, and chances stay above 80% through the end of the year.
iri.columbia.eduPress Release No. 993
wmo.intA strong El Niño sounds ominous — but one expert offers some answers about what could be ahead for the 2023-2024 season. Forecasters say El Niño, a climate pattern known for warmer ocean temperatures and increased rain and snow, is likely here to stay until early 2024. A massive heat wave is putting nearly 100 million people under intense triple-digit heat in the coming days. Here's how El Niño is contributing to the high temperatures. … HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired the previous...
www.cbsnews.comLatest news on El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern, which significantly alters global atmospheric circulation, affecting temperature
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